Driving home yesterday I was listening to The Michael Kay Show, and a caller brought up a very interesting question and hypothesis.
Just when did A-Rod know that he had tested positive?
Let's follow this time line.
2001, A-Rod signed a 10-year deal with the Texas Rangers that would take him through the 2010 baseball season.
2003 - MLB conducts random testing for steroid use. A-Rod tests positive, along with 103 others. The union however does not destroy the results.
2004 - The FBI seizes the 2003 test results in a raid connected with their BALCO investigation. At this point therefore some people know about A-Rod's positive test.
July 2007 - Jose Canseco says he is writing a new book on steroid use in baseball and says A-Rod will be in the book. Canseco calls A-Rod a "hypocrite."
October 2007 - A-Rod opts out of the final 3 years of his contract and negotiates a new 10-year deal with the Yankees.
February 2009 - With 9 years remaining on his contract, A-Rod admits to using steroids.
So here is the hypothesis. A-Rod and his agent Scott Boras knew his name was on that list. They also knew that once the FBI got a hold of that list, the names would eventually leak out. There were already rumors about A-Rod, when Canseco, riding the "I Told You So" train added his voice to the mix. The walls were crumbling.
If A-Rod hadn't opted out of his contract in 2007, next year would have been the final year of his contract. It is extremely unlikely he would have gotten anything close to the deal he did sign with the Yankees - both in terms of dollars and years. By conveniently opting out when he did, he guaranteed his continued baseball career and income well past the point where his steroid use would become known.
Given A-Rod's disingenous nature, it really wouldn't shock me if he and Boras were this conniving.
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